Nevertheless, many members, including these members, expressed the recognition that theimprovement in the output gap continued to exert upward pressure on wages and prices.
Nevertheless, the mechanism whereby an improvement in the output gap leads to a rise in inflation has continued to operate and the momentum toward 2 percent inflation has not been lost.
Theimprovement in the output gap and an increase in inflation expectations are likely to continue, and thus the underlying trend in inflation is expected to steadily rise.
Against this backdrop, theimprovement in the output gap and the rise in inflation expectations are likely to continue, and CPI inflation is expected to approach the price stability target of 2 percent.
Since then, the Bank has supported firms' and households' economic activity by maintaining highly accommodative financial conditions andcontributed to an improvement in the output gap.
These measures will influence mainly real interest rates and asset prices andinduce an increase in private demand and an improvement in the output gap.
These developments will further increase the pace of improvement in the output gap, and thus enhance the dynamism of the rise in the inflation rate through the first and second transmission channels that I explained earlier.
I consider that, for the time being, developments in prices will depend mainly on the balance between strengthening of trend inflationary pressure--due mainly to the improvement in the output gap-- and waning of upward pressure from import prices.
We are in a difficult situation in terms of achieving 2 percent inflation by fiscal 2020, as it is taking more time than expected for inflation to rise. Nevertheless,the momentum whereby an improvement in the output gap leads to an increase in actual inflation, and then a rise in inflation expectations, is maintained.
In fact, in calculating Japan's policy interest rate under the Taylor rule, 1 my recent estimates suggest that the rate has been shifting upward, from being in negative territory to 0 percent or almost in positive territory,reflecting theimprovement in the output gap and the increase in prices since the introduction of QQE.
The fact that the inflation rate has not declined too much butremained resilient despite the dissipating base effect suggests that theimprovement in the output gap and the rise in inflation expectations have been working as trend inflationary pressure.
The momentum whereby an improvement in the output gap leads to a rise in inflation has been maintained, but it should be noted that it will still take considerable time for this to change people's perception of prices and thereby shift the Phillips curve upward.
Moreover, if labor productivity of the economy as a whole improves and the long-term economic growth rate rises, business fixed investment and private consumption are likely to be stimulated through rises in growth expectations and permanent income,and prices are expected to rise with theimprovement in the output gap.
Prices The year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index(CPI) is likely to continue on an uptrend and increase toward 2 percent,mainly on the back of an improvement in the output gap and a rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
Lowering the 2% Inflation TargetIt is highly probable that CPI will rise by 1.0% orbetter in 2018 from the improvement of the supply-demand gap(demand will exceed supply with respect to the operation of labor and capital investments) and from the increase of wages for non-regular workers.
With regard to the outlook, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI(all items less fresh food) was likely to continue on an uptrend and increase toward 2 percent,mainly on the back of an improvement in the output gap and a rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
With regard to the outlook, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI for all items less fresh food islikely to continue on an uptrend mainly on the back of the improvement in the output gap and the rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
With regard to the outlook, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is likely to continue on an uptrend and increase toward 2 percent,mainly on the back of the improvement in the output gap and the rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
By conducting this operation, short- and long-term interest rates have been stable at low levels, and I consider that the highly accommodative financial conditions, brought about by yield curve control,have contributed to an improvement in the output gap by stimulating firms' and households' spending activities. Meanwhile, prices have continued to show relatively weak developments compared to the economic expansion and labor market tightening.
Now that theimprovement in the output gap has brought challenges on the supply-side to the fore, this is a good time to make efforts to raise the growth potential by increasing the capital stock and pursuing growth strategies such as measures to respond to the decline in the working age population and to promote innovation through regulatory and institutional reforms.
In terms of the outlook for prices, most members shared the view that the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI was likely to continue on an uptrend and increase toward 2 percent,mainly on the back of the improvement in the output gap and the rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
As I mentioned earlier,the recovery in asset prices could lead to an improvement in the output gap and in turn a rise in prices, by strengthening the risk tolerance of firms and households and then raising the level of total economic activity. Therefore, I would like to continue to draw attention to the channel in which monetary policy indirectly exerts influence on foreign exchange rates.
Comparing the recent situation with that from 2013 through the beginning of 2014-- when the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI accelerated markedly--there is a large difference in the pace of improvement in the output gap and of the rise in prices of electronic appliances, which has been relatively stable recently even amid the depreciation of the yen.
Considering the relationship between the price outlook and the output gap in light of the Phillips curve, in order for the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI to reach around 2 percent, it is necessary that the raterespond relatively clearly to an improvement in the output gap-- that is,the steepening of the slope-- and that the Phillips curve shift upward, reflecting a rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
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