Примери коришћења Vos savant на Енглеском и њихови преводи на Српски
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Vos Savant asks for a decision, not a chance.
Geena Davis andParade magazine's Marilyn vos Savant.
(vos Savant 1991a)"Virtually all of my critics understood the intended scenario.
Everybody hates Parade, butthe people that watch Crim9 Lab love their Marilyn Vos Savant.
During 1990- 1991, three more of her columns in Parade were devoted to the paradox(vos Savant 1990- 1991).
Many readers of vos Savant's column refused to believe switching is beneficial despite her explanation.
Even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs,many people still do not accept that switching is the best strategy(vos Savant 1991a).
(vos Savant 1996, p. xv) As a result of the publicity the problem earned the alternative name Marilyn and the Goats.
Anything else is a different question".(vos Savant 1991a)"Virtually all of my critics understood the intended scenario.
Vos Savant wrote in her first column on the Monty Hall problem that the player should switch(vos Savant 1990a).
A restated version of Selvin's problem appeared in Marilyn vos Savant's Ask Marilyn question-and-answer column of Parade in September 1990.
In 1991, Marilyn vos Savant responded to a reader who asked her to answer a variant of the Boy or Girl paradox that included beagles.
After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine,most of them claiming vos Savant was wrong(Tierney 1991).
In response to reader response that questioned her analysis vos Savant conducted a survey of readers with exactly two children, at least one of which is a boy.
However, vos Savant made it clear in her second follow-up column that the intended host's behavior could only be what led to the 2/3 probability she gave as her original answer.
A simple way to demonstrate that a switching strategy really does win two out of three times with the standard assumptions is to simulate the game with playing cards(Gardner 1959b; vos Savant 1996, pp. 8).
Morgan et al. complained in their response to vos Savant(1991c) that vos Savant still had not actually responded to their own main point.
(vos Savant 1996) The answer follows if the car is placed randomly behind any door, the host must open a door revealing a goat regardless of the player's initial choice and, if two doors are available, chooses which one to open randomly(Mueser and Granberg, 1999).
(Tierney 1991) Due to the overwhelming response,Parade published an unprecedented four columns on the problem.(vos Savant 1996, pp. xv) As a result of the publicity the problem earned the alternative name Marilyn and the Goats.
The solution presented by vos Savant(1990b) in Parade shows the three possible arrangements of one car and two goats behind three doors and the result of staying or switching after initially picking door 1 in each case.
There is disagreement in the literature regarding whether vos Savant's formulation of the problem, as presented in Parade magazine, is asking the first or second question, and whether this difference is significant(Rosenhouse 2009).
However, Marilyn vos Savant's solution(vos Savant 1990a) printed alongside Whitaker's question implies, and both Selvin(1975a) and vos Savant(1991a) explicitly define, the role of the host as follows: The host must always open a door that was not picked by the contestant(Mueser and Granberg 1999).
Very few raised questions about ambiguity, andthe letters actually published in the column were not among those few."(vos Savant 1996) The answer follows if the car is placed randomly behind any door, the host must open a door revealing a goat regardless of the player's initial choice and, if two doors are available, chooses which one to open randomly(Mueser and Granberg, 1999).
(vos Savant 1990a) Though vos Savant gave the correct answer that switching would win two-thirds of the time, she estimates the magazine received 10,000 letters including close to 1,000 signed by PhDs, many on letterheads of mathematics and science departments, declaring that her solution was wrong.
With regard to her survey they say it"at least validates vos Savant's correct assertion that the“chances” posed in the original question, though similar-sounding, are different, and that the first probability is certainly nearer to 1 in 3 than to 1 in 2.".
Vos Savant commented that, though some confusion was caused by some readers not realizing that they were supposed to assume that the host must always reveal a goat, almost all of her numerous correspondents had correctly understood the problem assumptions, and were still initially convinced that vos Savant's answer("switch") was wrong.
In an invited comment(Seymann 1991) andin subsequent letters to the editor,(vos Savant 1991c; Rao 1992; Bell, 1992; Hogbin and Nijdam, 2010) Morgan et al. were supported by some writers, criticized by others; in each case a response by Morgan et al. is published alongside the letter or comment in The American Statistician.
A survey such as vos Savant's suggests that the majority of people adopt an understanding of Gardner's problem that if they were consistent would lead them to the 1/3 probability answer but overwhelmingly people intuitively arrive at the 1/2 probability answer.
With regard to the second formulation Vos Savant gave the classic answer that the chances that the woman has two boys are about 1/3 whereas the chances that the man has two boys are about 1/2.