Machinery orders on a basis excluding orders for ships and those from electric power companies-- a leading indicator of machinery investment-- have been increasing since the July-September quarter, and business fixed investment plans are generally favorable as well.
Machinery orders(private demand, excluding shipbuilding and orders from electric power companies), a leading indicator of business fixed investment, increased in the October-December quarter by 6.0 percent from the previous quarter after declining in the July-September quarter.
Among leading indicators of business fixed investment, machinery orders(private demand, excluding shipbuilding and orders from electric power companies) dropped in the July-September quarter partly in reaction to the surge in the April-June quarter.
Machinery orders and construction starts in terms of planned expenses for private nondwelling construction-- both of which were leading indicators of business fixed investment-- continued on an increasing trend, albeit with monthly fluctuations.
Judging from various survey results and in light of recent machinery orders, a leading indicator, the trend of recovery in business spending, by large manufacturing companies in particular, is anticipated to become more evident.
設備投資は、法人企業統計や機械受注などにやや弱めの指標がみられるが、製造業を中心に増加傾向にある。
Business fixed investment had been on a rising trend, particularly in manufacturing industries, although some indicators, for example, the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry,Quarterly and machinery orders, were somewhat weak.
A different member expressedconcern that the achievement ratio for the quarterly forecast of machinery orders had been falling after reaching a peak in the January-March quarter of 2000.
The majority of members remarked that indicators such as machinery orders and construction starts(floor area) showed that business fixed investment remained on an uptrend, mainly in IT-related areas.
A few members said that, although attention needed to bepaid to somewhat weak figures of late for machinery orders and construction starts, business fixed investment that mainly reflected labor shortage remained firm.
On these grounds, members agreed that,judging from leading indicators such as machinery orders and business fixed investment plans for fiscal 2001, business fixed investment was likely to weaken.
Looking at machinery orders and shipments of capital goods between September and October, it is evident that, in spite of the recovery in corporate profits, firms' stance on business fixed investment remains tight.
今後、機械受注・建築着工等の先行指標やリース統計の動きなどもあわせて判断していく必要がある。
Developments in leading indicators, such as machinery orders and construction starts, and statistics on leased equipment would also need to be followed to assess the outlook for business fixed investment.
Business fixed investment continued to decrease, but the pace of decline had been moderating. Some leading indicators of business fixed investment,such as machinery orders in the manufacturing sector, seemed to have stopped declining.
Many members said that business fixed investment continued to increase, as evident from the fact thatshipments of capital goods were strong and machinery orders and construction starts, leading indicators of business fixed investment, continued their uptrend.
For example, although firms' fixed investment plans have been at high levels,coincident and leading indicators such as shipments of capital goods and machinery orders suggest that actual business fixed investment has been sluggish, and real business fixed investment on a GDP basis can be assessed as having been more or less unchanged, or even fallen marginally Chart 9.
One member pointed out that machinery orders and capacity utilization in the manufacturing industry were bottoming out, and business fixed investment had fallen to the level of depreciation costs. The member thus concluded that it was difficult to envisage a further decline in business fixed investment.
In fact, there are signs of a pick-up in exports,with an uptrend in external demand for machinery orders-- a leading indicator of exports of capital goods and parts-- and an improving trend in the forecast diffusion index of overseas supply and demand conditions for products as shown in the Tankan Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan.
A different member said that it should be noted that there was hardly any upward revision to business fixed investment plans for fiscal 2003 of largemanufacturers in the September Tankan from the June Tankan and that machinery orders were somewhat sluggish recently.
Members made the following comments on recent developments in the corporate sector taking account of the business surveys that had been released since mid-March, such as the Tankan(Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan), and economic indexes related to business fixed investment,for example, machinery orders and construction starts floor area.
There was a possibility that the significant downtrend in business fixed investment hadmoderated somewhat considering that the January-February averages of machinery orders, construction starts, and shipment of capital goods had all risen compared to the October-December 1998 averages.
Leading indicators of business fixed investment, such as machinery orders, seemed to have stopped declining, particularly in manufacturing, but firms remained cautious about increasing fixed investment, as reflected in their plans in the June Tankan Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan.
Moreover, although machinery orders(private demand, excluding shipbuilding and orders from electric power companies), a leading indicator of machinery investment, inched down in January after rising by 6.0 percent in the October-December quarter on a quarter-on-quarter basis, forecasts indicated that they would increase in the January-March quarter.
Business fixed investment continued to decrease. Given developments in machinery orders and in investment conditions such as the level of corporate profits, business fixed investment was very likely to decrease not only in IT-related manufacturers, which had shown a considerable decline, but also in a wider range of industries including nonmanufacturers.
Regarding the outlook, many members expressed the view that, given the developments in leading indicators of business fixed investment,such as machinery orders, there was a possibility that such investment would decelerate somewhat for the time being due to the effects of the slowdown in overseas economies.
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