With regard to the outlook, the rate of increase in the CPI(all items less fresh food),excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, is likely to be around 1-1/4 percent for some time.
The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI(excluding fresh food) in April and May this year,after excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, registered plus 1.5 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.
As for the outlook, the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI(all items less fresh food),excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, is likely to be around 1-1/4 percent for some time as the effects of the upward pressure from prices of petroleum products subside.
Considering the above points, the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI(for all items less fresh food andexcluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hikes) is likely to reach around 2 percent in or around fiscal 2015.
The year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index(CPI, excluding fresh food) was minus 0.4 percent in April last year when QQE was introduced, but it has improved since then,recently registering 1.3 percent excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike.
The year-on-year rate of change in the CPI, excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hikes, is likely to follow a rising trend, mainly reflecting an improvement in the aggregate supply and demand balance as well a rise in the expected rate of inflation.
With regard to the price developments, excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index(CPI, all items less fresh food) was 0.5 percent for December 2014.
Against such a backdrop, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI, excluding volatile food, which was minus 0.4 percent in April last year,has recently become 1.1 percent excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike.
On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index(CPI, all items less fresh food),excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, has been around 11⁄4 percent since the endof last year Chart 3.
While the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPIhas been around 11⁄4 percent excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, that in nominal wages has been in the range of 1-2 percent and that in employee income has been above 2 percent recently.
During the same period, with the positive contribution of energy items, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI including energy--excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike-- also continued to rise and reached 1.5 percent in April 2014.
As a result, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI(all items less fresh food)-- about minus 0.5 percent before the introduction of QQE--improved to 1.5 percent last April excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike.
On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index(CPI, all items less fresh food) has been slowing, reflecting the fall in crude oil prices, and the rate,excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, is around 0.5 percent.
The year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index(CPI) excluding fresh food, which was minus 0.5 percent in March 2013 immediately before introducing the QQE,has moved to around 11⁄4 percent excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike.
On the inflation front, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI(excluding fresh food), which was minus 0.5 percent when QQE was introduced, as of May this year has risen to plus1.4 percent excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike.
The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI for all items less fresh food for April 2014had improved to 1.5 percent excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, but its rate of increase slowed against the background of a substantial decline in crude oil prices since the summer, and the latest figure for the rate in January is 0.2 percent Chart 8.
As for the outlook, the CPI inflation rate--on the basis of figures excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike-- is likely to be around 11⁄4 percent until around this summer, as the underlying upward pressure on prices is likely to strengthen while the positive contribution stemming from the rise in energy prices will decline.
The CPI-based inflation was positive for two consecutive years,but the inflation rate was just around 0.8 percent(excluding thedirect impact of the consumption tax hike) in fiscal 2014. This rate was about the same as that in fiscal 2013 and much lower than had been initially projected in April 2013 Chart 2-1.
In the October 2013 Outlook Report, it was judged that the outlook for the year-on-year rate ofchange in the core CPI(excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hikes) was expected to follow a rising trend and was likely to reach around 2 percent-- the price stability target-- toward the latter half of the projection period.
On the price front, excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index(CPI, all items less fresh food) has been around 11⁄4 percent, although it has slowed somewhat, reflecting recent developments in energy prices.
Looking at the outlook for prices in more detail, the inflation rate--on the basis of figures excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hikes-- is likely to be around 1-1/4 percent until this summer as the positive contribution stemming from the rise in energy prices such as petroleum prices will gradually decline while the underlying upward pressure on prices is likely to strengthen.
Excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike on prices, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is expected to hover around 0 percent for the time being and start rising gradually thereafter reflecting the improvement in overall economic activity, such as increases in corporate profits and employment as well as a pickup in wages.
However, in terms of the year-on-year rate of increase in theCPI excluding fresh food stripping out thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, inflation has slowed since last summer due mainly to the substantial decline in crude oil prices and registered 0.2 percent in January Chart 8.
The year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index(CPI, excluding fresh food) was plus 1.3 percent for four consecutive months from December last year to March this year, and,after excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, accelerated somewhat to plus 1.5 percent in April Chart 5.
Looking at developments in the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI(all items less fresh food), or the core inflation rate in Japan, it had hit a bottom of minus 0.5 percent immediately before the introduction of QQE, and thereafter,excluding thedirect effects of the consumption tax hike, followed a steady rising trend until it reached 1.5 percent in April 2014.
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