Financial cycle and potential vulnerabilities Under these financial intermediation activities, the funding conditions for firms and households have been highly accommodative.
Looking back, the following two cycles have often synchronized: the cycle of economic activity, or the output gap,and the financial cycle-- in other words, the buildup of financial imbalances and their collapse.
If the financial cycle becomes large in magnitude or many financial institutions become more interconnected by increasing common exposure or forming mutual asset-liability arrangements, systemic risk will emerge and spread within the financial system.
Afterward, the real economy went through several business cycles with short-lived recovery phases, as the balance sheet adjustment at firms and financial institutions continued;in other words, the financial cycle remained in a stagnation phase.
Therefore, what is desirable for a central bank is to give a certain consideration not only to the output gap butalso to containing the financial cycle when pursuing monetary policy.
One is that financial stability is the foundation of sustained growth of the economy,and another is that changes in potential growth amplify the financial cycle and consequently impact financial stability.
Since the beginning of the 2000s, the adjustment of excess debt by firms and the disposal of nonperformingloans by banks have run their course and the financial cycle has entered into a recovery phase, and thus the economic recovery has lasted a long time.
Financial cycle and potential vulnerabilities The funding conditions for firms and households have been highly accommodative, but the financial cycle has shown no signs of overheating as observed during the bubble period in the late 1980s.
That is because of a feedback loop in which changes in the output gap andchanges in the financial cycle have reinforced each other, leading to larger changes for both.
Regarding the financial cycle that is the first part of the assessment, on the whole no imbalances in financial and economic activities can be observed while the funding conditions for firms and households have been highly accommodative.
Many of the measures that have been adopted recently invarious countries are ones with which to lean against financial cycles, by utilizing regulatory ratios such as the countercyclical capital buffer(CCB) and the loan-to-value(LTV) ratio.
Let me offer the example of the total credit-to-GDP ratio,which is a typical indicator of the financial cycle(Chart 4). It is difficult to graspthe underlying trend of the ratio, given the overwhelming magnitude of the emergence and bursting of the asset bubble from the late 1980s to early 1990s in Japan.
The expansion in the financial cycle has supported the current overall economic expansion. However, from a somewhat longer-term perspective, if the growth potential of Japan's economy does not increase, then the recent financial developments could build up pressure on balance sheet adjustments and thereby amplify downward pressure on the economy in the event of a future negative shock.
And those supporting the independent tool theory argued that atightening of window guidance could dampen the financial cycle, even if the official discount rate was held steady.5 The Bank of Japan, in the meantime, basically adopted the complementary tool theory and explained window guidance as a tool to support general policy instruments, such as changes to the official discount rate, rather than an independent policy instrument.
There have been many discussions on how to deal with substantial imbalances including a bubble: to what extent such changes could be gauged in advance and preemptive measures could be taken, or what measures should be implemented in response to the imbalances. In any event,the recognition has become widespread that the financial cycle could lead to significant changes in the economy as a whole.
Executive summary Assessment of financial intermediation and financial cycleFinancial intermediation has remained well-functioned on the back of the Bank of Japan's monetary easing, supporting the moderate expansion of Japan's economy.
With banks' very active lending stances, the real estate market seems overheated in some areas; however,our aggregate financialcycle indicator estimated from major financial activity indexes has shown no significant imbalances recently(Chart 2).2.
担保制約と景気循環、金融危機、産業構造変化と所得格差。
Collateral constraint and business cycles, financial crises, changing industrial structure and income disparity.
これには景気循環や金融政策に最も敏感に反応する要素が含まれる」と説明している。
This includes the components that are most sensitive to the business cycle and monetary policy.”.
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